Tonalist: Breeders’ Cup Contender or Belmont Specialist?

Since 1960, four horses (Summer Bird 2009, Easy Goer 1989, Temperence Hill 1980, and Damascus 1967) have completed the Belmont/Gold Cup double in the same year.  Other three year-olds to accomplish the feat include Man o’ War (1920), Citation (1948) Gallant Man (1957), and Arts and Letters (1969) - pretty heady company indeed.  With Tonalist’s stock soaring, he is likely to be one of the top three betting choices in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Santa Anita November 1. 

Value may be found outside three year-old favorites

But, with this year’s Breeders’ Cup looking completely wide-open, the astute handicapper should demand value in a field that looks devoid of bona-fide superstars.  With much of the betting attention sure to go towards fellow three year-old and undefeated runner Shared Belief, Tonalist is another horse that must be examined closely despite his stellar credentials.  Beginning with his most recent triumph, Tonalist settled well off the pace and rallied to beat a solid, but unspectacular field earning a career-best Beyer Speed Figure of 106.

Can Tonalist take his show on the road? 

It’s tough to discredit Tonalist’s win, but it’s fair to question whether the colt, who is now three for three at Belmont Park and one for five elsewhere, is a horse-for-course that seems to have trouble replicating his success away from his favorite track.  To be sure, most horses show an affinity for certain tracks. It's also possible Tonalist is just peaking at the right time, but the Beyer Figures leave little room for speculation.  In his last five races, Tonalist has run exclusively at Belmont and Saratoga.  Each of the Belmont races yielded triple digit Beyers, while the Saratoga races produced figures of 96 and 98.  Considering this trend, it seems reasonable to conclude that Tonalist could struggle shipping across the country and running on a vastly different race track than the friendly confines of Belmont Park.