Pletcher Pair Likely to be Overbet in KY Derby

Pletcher Pair Likely to be Overbet in KY Derby

Category : News - Sat 25/04/2015 - 17:05 EDT

But to find the value, players must first focus on weeding out the short list of horses with solid credentials, but who also have enough question marks to make them uninspiring plays at likely overbet odds. The 2015 field has at least two horses that fit this profile and both of them happened to be trained by Todd Pletcher. Florida Derby hero Materiality has a load of potential – perhaps more than any of the 19 foes he will face on the first Saturday in May – but history shows that his lack of experience will prove to be the colt’s undoing. With just three career starts (all wins) under his belt, Materiality has thus far, benefitted from easy front-running trips – a credit to his natural speed and raw ability.

History not in Materiality's favor 

With an abundance of legitimate pace threats in the field, Materiality figures to be battling it out on the lead against a host of legitimate horses while managing to overcome the bumping and positional battle that is an inherent part of any race featuring 20 starters. If Materiality is to resort to new tactics, he will have to demonstrate an added dimension in just his fourth career start, and remember that not even two-time Horse of the Year Curlin – another horse unraced at two entering the Derby with three starts – was able to overcome.

Under the microscope: Carpe Diem 

Carpe Diem, another runner from the Pletcher barn who is sure to be well-fancied by the betting public, also enters the Derby with legitimate question marks despite winning the Tampa Derby and Bluegrass Stakes in impressive fashion. Most glaringly, Carpe Diem recorded Beyer numbers of 98 for the Tampa win and 95 for his Bluegrass victory. These are solid, but unspectacular numbers that simply do not stack up with the accomplishments of horses like American Pharoah and Dortmund who have each recorded multiple triple-digit Beyer Speed Figures in their key prep races. In addition, the back-side buzz seems to be that Carpe Diem is something of a nervous colt who abhors large crowds. Pletcher’s decision to keep the colt at Keeneland for his final Derby workouts instead of shipping 80 miles to test the Churchill Downs racing strip seems to support this idea. Many horses have come to Kentucky with legitimate hopes only to have them dashed by pre-race jitters that come with the hysteria of Derby day. The combination of the two colt's winning major preps and having a high-profile trainer such as Pletcher will ensure plenty of wagering interest in both Carpe Diem and Materiality who may be best left off the tickets of serious horse players looking for fair value.      

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